Asia Pacific developing nations must unlock fiscal space to sustain growth dynamism
ESCAP flagship publication outlines ways to mobilize resources for sustainable development
Bangkok (ESCAP News) - Asia Pacific developing economies are experiencing yet another year of subdued growth, the United Nations said here today, calling for quick action on the removal of domestic structural constraints and the unlocking of fiscal space to help stimulate growth and support social development.
Sturctural constaints, such as infrastructure and development deficts, along with external challenges, are keeping the region from realizing its economic potential, according to the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2014, the annual flagship publication of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
Developing countries in the region are forecast to grow at an average of 5.8 percent in 2014, up from 5.6 percent last year. This marks the third successive year of growth below 6 percent. By comparison, growth averaged 9.5 percent in the pre-crisis years of 2005-2007 and over 7 percent in 2010 and 2011.
“The constrained domestic growth prospects of the region have underlined the importance of productive countercyclical public spending to support inclusive growth and sustainable development, “ United Nations under secretary general and ESCAP Executive Secretary Dr. Shamshad Akhtar said.
Trade driven East and North East Asia is expected to grow moderately at 4.1 per cent in 2014 against 4.2 percent last year. Subdued global commodities demand is forecast to lower North and Central Asian growth to 1.3 percent from 2.1 percent in 2013. Despite geographical challenges, Pacific island developing economies are projected to grow at 4.9 percent against 4.0 per cent last year. Growth in South and south-west asia is forecast at 4.7 percent in 2014 from 3.9 per cent last year. South East Asia’s economy is set to grow slower at 4.6 percent from 4.9 per cent last year.
Dr. Akhtar emphasized that developing economies in Asia and the Pacific are experiencing subdued growth for different reasons, including economic rebalancing and sustainability considerations in China, monetary tightening to flight and inflation in India and Indonesia, and the impact of geopolitical instability on the Russian Federation.
China India, Indonesia, and the Russian Federation are projected to grow at 7.5, 5.5, 5.4 and 0.3 percent, respectively in 2014 compared to 7.7, 4.7, 5.8 and 1.3 percent, respectively in 2013. The group of 12 least developed countries (LDCs) in the region are forecast to grow at 5.6 percent in 2014 –slower than the developing Asia Pacific average.
Inflation in developing Asia Pacific countries as a whole is projected at 4.8 percent in 2014 against 5.0 percent last year, but will be a concern for some large developing economies including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan.
Launching Survey 2014 in Bangkok, Dr. Akhtar stressed the urgency for bridging gaps in infrastructure and development in the region and addressing environmental degradation in order to promote higher, well balanced and sustainable growth. Another priority for ensuring the sustainability of growth is to better address climate change through improved climate finance.
ESCAP estimates an annual infrastructure development funding requirement of 800-900 billion in the region. At the same time, more than 60 percent of Asia-Pacific people lack social protection coverage. An estimated 63.1 percent of women and 56 percent of men in the region faced employment vulnerabilities in 2013 and youth unemployment is three times the adult rate.
External Challenges
Asia-Pacific countries are coping with the fallout of monetary and trade policies in the developed world. The withdrawal of quantitative easing by the United States has jolted regional financial markets. Survey 2014 estimates further financial market volatility, expected from the continued normalization of monetary policy in the United States, could cut annual growth by between 0.7 to 0.9 percent in India, India, Malaysia the Russian Federation, Thailand and Turkey.
Trade-restrictive measures in advanced economies outside the region may also have deprived Asia Pacific developing countries of 225 billion in goods export opportunities between 2009 and 2013, translating into a cumulative decline of more than 1.6% of regional economic output, the ESCAP analysis reveals.
Rising inequality
The growing disparity in incomes and access to social opportunities is a dampener on economic dynamism in Asia-Pacific developing countries says Survey 2014. The estimates indicate that the poorest 20% of people in 40 Asia-Pacific countries account for less than 10% of national income. The net wealth of about 49000/- ultra-wealthy individuals in the region – with atleast 30 million in assets – 17 times the combined GDP of Asia-Pacific least developed countries.
Mobilizing finances for sustainable growth
Given high public debt levels and declining international development assistance, Survey 2014 outlines a blueprint for mobilizing resources for required productive government spending, focused on strengthening tax revenues which fall for short of potential in most Asia-Pacific countries. This tax gap is more than 5% of GDP in some countries, rising as high 12.5% of GDP in others. Closing existing tax gaps in 16 Asia-Pacific developing economies would increase total revenues in excess of 300 billion, boosting tax revenues by more than 70% in some countries, ESCAP estimates in Survey 2014 show.
ESCAP recommends broadening the tax base and rationalizing rates; tackling tax evasion and tax fraud; making tax administration efficient; careful sequencing of tax reforms, and better regional cooperation.
ESCAP also proposes the establishment of an Asia-Pacific Tax forum of experts and officials which it would coordinate to monitor tax legislation and regulations across the region, help develop regional best practice and address issues ranging from avoiding tax competition for foreign investment to double taxation and preventing the illicit transfer of funds.
The Survey 2014 makes a valuable contribution to the development discourse underway in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. It provides fresh data, new perspectives and policy guidance on issues which are critical to fostering more inclusive and sustainable development. “the ESCAP Executive Secretary said.